“主要吸熱氣體的濃度持續上升，包括甲烷水平的創紀錄加速，表明我們正朝著錯誤的方向發展，”他說。
“有一些具成本效益的戰略可用于應對甲烷排放問題，特別是應對化石燃料部門的排放，我們應該立即實施這些戰略。然而，甲烷的壽命相對較短，不到10年，因此它對氣候的影響是可逆轉的。作為首要和最緊迫的優先事項，我們必須削減二氧化碳的排放，因為它是氣候變化和相關極端天氣的主要驅動因素，而且將通過極地冰層損失、海洋增溫和海平面上升等方式影響氣候數千年，”塔拉斯教授說。
“我們需要改變工業、能源和運輸系統以及整體生活方式。所需的變革在經濟上是可以承受的，在技術上也是可能的。但時間已經不多了，”塔拉斯教授說。
聯合國氣候變化大會（COP27）將于11月7日至18日在埃及舉行。在沙姆沙伊赫會議前夕，WMO將提交其《2022年全球氣候狀況》臨時報告，該報告將說明溫室氣體如何繼續推動氣候變化和極端天氣。2015年至2021年是有記錄以來最暖的七年。
WMO的報告旨在激勵COP27的談判代表采取更具雄心的行動，以實現《巴黎協定》將全球升溫限制在遠低于工業化前水平的2攝氏度，最好是1.5攝氏度以下的目標。目前，全球平均溫度比1850-1900年工業化前的平均溫度高出1.1℃以上。
鑒于需要加強溫室氣體的信息基礎，為氣候減緩工作的決定提供依據，WMO正在與更廣泛的溫室氣體界合作，以開發一個推進持續的、國際協調的全球溫室氣體監測框架，包括觀測網絡的設計和國際交換及所產生的觀測結果的使用等。WMO將與更廣泛的科學界和國際社會合作，特別是在陸面和海洋觀測與模擬方面。
WMO測量大氣溫室氣體濃度，也就是測量在溫室氣體被海洋和生物圈等匯吸收后，留在大氣中的部分。這部分與排放是不同的。
聯合國環境署將于10月27日單獨發布一份補充性《排放差距報告》。該《排放差距報告》評估了關于當前和估計未來溫室氣體排放的最新科學研究。“可能達到的水平與需要達到的水平”之間的差異被稱為排放差距。
只要繼續排放，全球溫度就會繼續上升。鑒于二氧化碳的壽命很長，即使排放量迅速減少到凈零，已經觀測到的溫度水平仍將持續數十年。
公報的要點
二氧化碳（CO2）
2021年，大氣二氧化碳達到了工業化前水平的149%，主要是因為來自化石燃料燃燒和水泥生產的排放。自2020年因新冠疫情采取隔離措施以來，全球排放量有所反彈。在2011-2020年期間人類活動的總排放量中，約48%累積在大氣中，26%在海洋中，29%在陸地上。
陸地生態系統和海洋作為“匯”的能力在未來可能會變得不那么有效，從而降低其吸收二氧化碳和減緩溫度上升的能力。在有些地方，已經出現了土地匯變成二氧化碳源的情況。
甲烷（CH4）
大氣甲烷是氣候變化的第二大貢獻者，它由多種重疊的源和匯組成，因此很難按來源類型來量化排放。
自2007年以來，全球平均大氣甲烷濃度一直在加速增加。2020年和2021年的年度增長率（分別為15和18 ppb）是自1983年開始系統記錄以來的最大增幅。
全球溫室氣體科學界仍在調查其原因。分析表明，自2007年以來，造成甲烷再次增加的最主要原因是生物源，如濕地或稻田。目前尚不能確定2020年和2021年的極端增長是否是氣候反饋，即如果天氣變暖，有機物會分解得更快。如果有機物在水中（無氧）分解，這將導致甲烷排放。因此，如果熱帶濕地變得更濕潤和更溫暖，就有可能產生更多排放。
急劇增加也可能是由于自然年際變化。2020年和2021年出現了拉尼娜事件，這與熱帶地區的降水增加相關。
氧化亞氮（N 2O）
氧化亞氮是第三種最重要的溫室氣體。它即可通過自然源（約57%）也可通過人為源（約43%）排放到大氣中，包括海洋、土壤、生物質燃燒、化肥使用和各種工業過程等。2020年至2021年的增幅略高于2019年至2020年觀測到的增幅，也高于過去10年的平均年增長率。
編者按
WMO全球大氣監視網計劃負責協調對溫室氣體（GHG）的系統觀測和分析。公報中納入了來自55個WMO會員的測量數據。這些數據由設在日本氣象廳的世界溫室氣體數據中心（WDCGG）負責歸檔和分發。
世界氣象組織是聯合國系統關于天氣、氣候和水的權威聲音
欲了解更多信息，請聯系：WMO媒體官員Clare Nullis。電子郵件：cnullis@wmo.int. 手機：+41 79 709 13 97
More bad news for the planet: greenhouse gas levels hit new highs
WMO records biggest increase in methane concentrations since start of measurements
Geneva/New York, 26 October (WMO) - In yet another ominous climate change warning, atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide all reached new record highs in 2021, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reported the biggest year-on-year jump in methane concentrations in 2021 since systematic measurements began nearly 40 years ago. The reason for this exceptional increase is not clear, but seems to be a result of both biological and human-induced processes.
The increase in carbon dioxide levels from 2020 to 2021 was larger than the average annual growth rate over the last decade. Measurements from WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch network stations show that these levels continues to rise in 2022 over the whole globe.
Between 1990 and 2021, the warming effect on our climate (known as radiative forcing) by long-lived greenhouse gases rose by nearly 50%, with carbon dioxide accounting for about 80% of this increase.
Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2021 were 415.7 parts per million (ppm), methane at 1908 parts per billion (ppb) and nitrous oxide at 334.5 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 149%, 262% and 124% of pre-industrial levels before human activities started disrupting natural equilibrium of these gases in the atmosphere.
“WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin has underlined, once again, the enormous challenge – and the vital necessity – of urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions and prevent global temperatures rising even further in the future,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“The continuing rise in concentrations of the main heat-trapping gases, including the record acceleration in methane levels, shows that we are heading in the wrong direction,” he said.
“There are cost-effective strategies available to tackle methane emissions, especially from the fossil fuel sector, and we should implement these without delay. However, methane has a relatively short lifetime of less than 10 years and so its impact on climate is reversible. As the top and most urgent priority, we have to slash carbon dioxide emissions which are the main driver of climate change and associated extreme weather, and which will affect climate for thousands of years through polar ice loss, ocean warming and sea level rise,” said Prof. Taalas.
“We need to transform our industrial, energy and transport systems and whole way of life. The needed changes are economically affordable and technically possible. Time is running out,” said Prof. Taalas.
WMO UN Climate Change conference, COP27, in Egypt from 7-18 November. On the eve of the conference in Sharm-el-Sheikh it will present its provisional State of the Global Climate 2022 report, which will show how greenhouse gases continue to drive climate change and extreme weather. The years from 2015 to 2021 were the seven warmest on record.
The WMO reports seek to galvanize COP27 negotiators into more ambitious action decision makers to achieve the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. The average global temperature is now more than 1.1°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.
Given the need to strengthen the greenhouse gas information basis for decisions on climate mitigation efforts, WMO is working with the broader greenhouse gas community to develop a framework for sustained, internationally coordinated global greenhouse gas monitoring, including observing network design and international exchange and use of the resulting observations. It will engage with the broader scientific and international community, in particular regarding land surface and ocean observation and modelling.
WMO measures atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases – what remains in the atmosphere after gases are absorbed by sinks like the ocean and biosphere. This is not the same as emissions.
A separate and complementary Emissions Gap Report by UN Environment will be released on 27 October. The Emissions Gap report assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas emissions. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” is known as the emissions gap.
As long as emissions continue, global temperature will continue to rise. Given the long life of CO 2, the temperature level already observed will persist for decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.
Highlights of the Bulletin
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Atmospheric carbon dioxide reached 149% of the pre-industrial level in 2021, primarily because of emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and cement production. Global emissions have rebounded since the COVID-related lockdowns in 2020. Of the total emissions from human activities during the 2011–2020 period, about 48% accumulated in the atmosphere, 26% in the ocean and 29% on land.
There is concern that the ability of land ecosystems and oceans to act as “sinks” may become less effective in future, thus reducing their ability to absorb carbon dioxide and act as a buffer against larger temperature increase. In some parts of the world the transition of the land sink into CO 2source is already happening.
Methane (CH4)
Atmospheric methane is the second largest contributor to climate change and consists of a diverse mix of overlapping sources and sinks, so it is difficult to quantify emissions by source type.
Since 2007, globally-averaged atmospheric methane concentration has been increasing at an accelerating rate. The annual increases in 2020 and 2021 (15 and 18 ppb respectively) are the largest since systematic record began in 1983.
Causes are still being investigated by the global greenhouse gas science community. Analysis indicates that the largest contribution to the renewed increase in methane since 2007 comes from biogenic sources, such as wetlands or rice paddies. It is not yet possible to say if the extreme increases in 2020 an 2021 represent a climate feedback – if it gets warmer, the organic material decomposes faster. If it decomposes in the water (without oxygen) this leads to methane emissions. Thus, if tropical wetlands become wetter and warmer, more emissions are possible.
The dramatic increase might also be because of natural interannual variability. The years 2020 and 2021 saw La Ni?a events which are associated with increased precipitation in tropics.
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas. It is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural sources (approximately 57%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 43%), including oceans, soils, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes. The increase from 2020 to 2021 was slightly higher than that observed from 2019 to 2020 and higher than the average annual growth rate over the past 10 years
Notes for Editors
The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch Programme coordinates systematic observations and analyses of greenhouse gases (GHG). The Bulletin includes measurement data from 55 WMO Members. This data is archived and distributed by the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) at the Japan Meteorological Agency.
The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice
on Weather, Climate and Water
來源：中外能源經濟觀察
審核：李 仙
編輯：蔡小莉
來都來了，點個在看再走吧~~~
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